유가와 세계 경제의 관계 - 유가가 그동안 걸어온 길

들어가며
유가에 대한 관심이 깊어지고 있습니다. 이번 기회에 유가에 대한 저의 생각을 3번으로 나누어 글을 적어보려 합니다.
1편에서는 유가가 지난 5년간 걸어온 길을 다룰 예정이며, 2편은 유가가 신흥국 시장에 미친 영향, 마지막 편에서는 향후 유가에 영향을 미칠 요소들을 알아볼 예정입니다.

(1) 유가와 세계 경제와의 관계

근례 유가에 대한 이야기가 많이 나오고 있습니다. 유가는 세계 경제에 직접적인 영향을 미치고 있는데, 그 예가 이번 10월 FOMC 성명서에서 나왔다고 볼 수 있습니다. 미 연준은 낮은 인플레이션의 원인으로 저유가로 들었는데, 유가가 낮은 가격을 유지하면서 산업생산가와 소비자물가가 올라가지 않으면서 비롯되는 현상입니다.

유가에 대해 더 자세히 얘기하기 전에, 유가를 결정하는 요소를 알아 보겠습니다. 이 요소들은 크게 (1) 달러화 강세, (2) 공급과 수요로 나누어질 수 있습니다.

일단 첫 번째로 달러화 강세에 대해 살펴보겠습니다.

달러화와 유가는 반비례의 관계를 가지고 있습니다. 달러화가 강세가 될 수록 유가는 떨어지는 형태를 보여주고 있습니다. 하지만 달러화 강세가 되어서 유가가 하락하는 것인지, 아니면 유가가 하락하여 달러화가 강세가 되는 것인지에 대한 차이를 알아야 합니다.

출처 : FRED

 달러화와 유가의 관계가 이루어지는 이유는, 유가를 결제할 때 달러화를 많이 쓰기 때문입니다. 달러화가 강세가 될수록 유류의 가격을 상대적으로 내려가기 때문에, 음의 관계를 가지게 되는 것입니다. 즉, 달러화 강세는 유류가격의 '선행지표'가 될 수 있다는 뜻입니다.

하지만 반비례 관계가 뚜렷히 나타나는 유가에도 단점이 있습니다. 2013년도 경우에는 유가와 달러와의 관계가 거의 없는 7.26% correlation 으로 나올 정도로 항상 예외는 있습니다.

두번째인 공급과 수요의 이슈로 가보겠습니다.

이 주제를 솔직히 가장 자세히 다루고 싶었던 이슈입니다. 유가는 투기자산으로써 쓰이기도 하지만, 산업용과 소비용의 이슈가 가장 크기 때문입니다. 즉, 산업에서 직접 쓰이는 수요가 가격에 큰 비중을 차지한다는 뜻이 됩니다.

시장에서는 이 유류가격의 '전망'을 많이 보고 있습니다. 미래에 얼마의 유류가 필요할지가 시장 가격에 영향을 많이 미친다는 뜻이며, 중국, 미국, 독일과 같은 큰 제조업 국가들의 경제성장 전망이 큰 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

출처 : FRED

2014년 7월 말경, 세계 각국 중앙은행들은 약속이나 했듯 경제성장 전망치를 대폭 낮추었습니다. 그리고 10월경 IMF World Economic Outlook이 수정 되면서 유가에 큰 영향을 미치게 되었습니다. 그들의 공통된 이유중 하나는 중국의 경제성장에 대한 의문점 이었습니다. 세계 경제가 둔화되면서 중국의 제조업과 수출이 영향을 받아 중국 경제가 둔회된다는 생각이었습니다. 이 중국 경제의 둔화는 유가시장에 큰 영향을 끼치게 되었습니다.

출처 : IMF World Economic Outlook - October 2014

유가가 경제둔화에도 불구하고 $100 근처에 맴돌았던 이유는 경제 성장에 대한 기대감으로 인한 버블이 있었기 때문입니다. 따라서 유가는 지속적으로 오르게 되었고, 정유 업계들은 이 당시 설비투자를 늘리며 공급을 늘리기 시작했습니다. 하지만 2014년 10월경을 정점으로, 설비투자를 점차 줄이기 시작했습니다. 유가 하락이 가파라지자 공급과잉 시대로 들어서게 된 것입니다.

출처 : Baker Hughes

또한 유류가격이 낮아지면서 정유 업체들은 천연가스 생산의 비중을 줄이고 유가 생산의 비중을 높였으나, 2014년 10월을 기점으로 천연가스 생산의 비중을 다시 높이고 있습니다.

출처 : Baker Hughes

결론

그러면 지난 1년여동안의 유가시장이 우리에게 주는 교훈은 무엇일까요? 시장은 결국 supply & demand로 회기한다는 것이고, 지나친 자신감과 낙관적인 예상은 큰 화를 불러 이르킬 수 있다는 것을 얘기하고 있습니다. 달러화와 유가는 분명 음의 관계를 가지고 있지만, 이것은 달러화로 유가를 결제함에 있어서 라는 것을 명심하여야 합니다.

다음편에는 이 유가상황이 신흥국시장에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지 알아보겠습니다.

Comparative Analysis of How Amazon Inc. Can Succeed in South Korea

Summary

            Online shopping industry in South Korea has about $1.8 billion market size. Its growth rate slowdown recently, but mobile platform is still growing rapidly. Oversea online shopping leads recent growth in online shopping industry that this oversea platform has huge impact on its relative industries, such as logistics, distribution and transportation.

            Amazon needs to satisfy three conditions to succeed in South Korea.

(1) Amazon needs to adopt convenient payment system. This requires legislation reform to save personal credit information into company’s server, which is illegal in South Korea now.

(2) Amazon should target on oversea online shoppers. Domestic in Korea online shopping mall is overcrowded that Amazon needs to target new outgrowing consumer segment.

(3) Amazon needs a partnership with a domestic logistics company for fast-delivery system. For example, the IKEA conducted a partnership with CJ Korea Express, which is the biggest logistics company in Korea.

            This report finds out that the Hyundai Logistics has the most competitive advantage among the domestic logistic companies, but the Hyundai Logistics is unlikely to have large benefits from the partnership even its market share increases.

Background of Online Shopping in South Korea

Source: Fair Trade Commission

Online shopping industry in South Korea is divided into two sectors – (1) online mall such as InterPark, Auction and Gmarket that has open-market platform, and (2) on/offline mall such as Lotte.com, Hmall, Lottemart and eMart that sells similar type of products in department store and online at the same time. Key market players of the industry have the on/offline mall platform that potentially expand to the open-market platform.

Source: Korea Online Shopping Association

Market share of the open-market platform is led by Auction & Gmarket (eBay Kore) followed by 11st Street and InterPark. ShopN does not have significant market share yet, but it is growing from the biggest search engine owned by the parents company, Naver.com. Their main products are electronics, clothes, accessories, cosmetics and beauty care products. The four companies listed above have 98.7% of the market share in 2014.

On/offline shopping sector is dominated by department or large retail stores. Department stores had 31.0% growth rate in 2010, but the growth rate has declined after: 22.5% in 2011 and 10.3% in 2012.

Relationship between Logistics and Online Shopping Industry

            Last year, logistics industry had 7.5% annual growth rate. This growth rate came from development of the online shopping industry and its oversea shipping platform. Especially the oversea import increased to 17.22 million, which grew by 25.3% from a year ago. The import got above $1 million for the first time. This growth rate proves that logistics and online shopping industries can grow together.

            There are many business models in the logistics industry. Among the models, the most related model with Amazon is the TPL (Third Party Logistics) business. This business has about $8 billion market size, which is about 7.9% of the logistics industry. The TPL is expected to grow 5~10% in a short run and 20~30% in a long run. TPL used by Korean firms is about 65% in 2013, which is relatively low compared with 70% by Japanese and 80~90% by North America and European firms.

            If Amazon uses the TPL business, it can boost the TPL business to the Japan or European level. Considering that most of Amazon users in South Korea is oversea online shoppers, this TPL partnership will be beneficial for both logistics industry and Amazon.

Source: Korea Consumer Agency

Will Amazon Succeed in South Korea?

            Amazon is expected to focus on 20~40 age who likes oversea online shopping. Recent data shows that the oversea shopping is growing rapidly: the oversea shopping increased by 47.1% to 110 million orders, and its total amount increased by 47.1% to $1.4 billion in 2013. Amazon has a comparative advantage in this industry that takes 75% of the oversea shopping products come from Amazon. It means that it has a comparative advantage from Alibaba as well.

Source: Korea Consumer Agency

             Yet Amazon has to be careful that it may need to increase its price. Korea oversea shoppers use Amazon because of its price advantage. But it is unclear that how Amazon can keep the lower price in South Korea when Samsung and LG Electronics have own electronic stores. Samsung and LG Electronics may increase factory prices to protect their interest.

            If Amazon loses its price advantage, its net profit will decline. Amazon’s net profit has been slowdown since 2010 despite its revenue has increased. It brings up a concern that Amazon is dumping its price to increase market share.

Source: SEC Amazon Inc. 10K

Is One-click Payment Possible in South Korea?

            One of Amazon’s biggest feature is the One-click Payment System that provides fast delivery and forms distribution network. It means that possibility of the One-click Payment System is the biggest issue of Amazon’s success in South Korea. Amazon Korea looks forward to build a data center to build the payment system appropriate in the Korea market.

            The One-click Payment System is a convenient payment system that allows to save credit information into Amazon’s data server so that Amazon users don’t have to re-input their information. However, regulation in Korea does not allow private companies to save personal credit data in their server. There is a deregulation movement observed from the Financial Supervisory Commission that may help Amazon’s payment system.

            BC Card opened “PayALL” payment service that can be used in major online shopping malls such as Gmarket, 11st Street, Auction, NShop and CJ Mall. PayLL does not require “Active X” system to provide more convenient and faster service. But the PayALL service requires five steps to use while Amazon’s One-click Payment System requires to put only credit card and CV number, which provides more convenience. If Amazon can expand its payment system, it will be the biggest asset to expand its network since Amazon has the intellectual property.

Source: BC Card

Amazon’s Partnership?

            Like what I mentioned above, successful expansion of Amazon in South Korea will be beneficial for its domestic logistics industry. The logistics industry in South Korea has four major players – CJ Korea Express, Hyundai, Hanjin and Post office service. CJ and Daehan Express merged in 2014 and maintained the biggest market share, 37%. This merge led to an exclusive contract with IKEA when it expanded business to South Korea. Amazon is likely to have a partnership with one of the logistics industry as the IKEA did.

Source: Korea Distribution Association

            Hyundai Logistics is a subsidiary company of Hyundai Group, which has strong network inside and outside of South Korea. Besides, it has proven to have efficient distribution system and price advantage that led to TLP contract with big retail companies such as Amazon in North and South America. For example, Hyundai Logistics is in charge of shipping products between Brazil and the U.S., for Nestle, Amazon and Goodyear. Hyundai Logistics’ strong relationship with Amazon can lead to partnership when Amazon expands the network in South Korea.

            Besides, Hyundai Logistics has already built distribution center for oversea online shoppers. It established a subsidiary company called “iDeliver” that specialized for oversea shipping as the market grows. Its distribution center is located in Delaware and expected to expand its network to 30 countries. In South Korea, Hyundai Logistics has the second largest market share, and a distribution nearby Seoul. The strong relationship with Amazon and pre-exited distributing system will satisfy Amazon’s needs.

Amazon’s Shipping Expense Forecast

            From 2010 to 2014, Amazon’s revenue increased by 160%. Shipping revenue increased by 238% while shipping expense increased by 276% at the same time. Shipping revenue increases a part of Amazon Prime membership, and a portion of revenue from shipping system, excluding profits from other logistics companies. As a result, shipping revenue increased by $3 million while the expense increased by $6.1 million.

            Amazon needs to cut the shipping expense or increase price of Amazon Prime membership. Considering Amazon’s management philosophy, Amazon is likely to choose decreasing shipping expense rather than increasing the price. Finding an optimal price in this circumstance will be tough for both domestic logistics company and Amazon.

Source: SEC Amazon Inc. 10K

Source: SEC Amazon Inc. 10K

Conclusion: Amazon and South Korea

            Amazon needs to answer on the following questions: (1) Are they going to focus on oversea online shopping? (2) How will the distribution system work? (3) Who will be the partner? And (4) Is One-click Payment work in South Korea?

            It will not be easy to answer those questions, but those questions need to be answered Amazon’s success in South Korean market. Its success not only it requires deregulation, but also asks for a strong partnership with domestic logistics company at the optimal price, while there is a concern that Amazon loses price advantage in South Korean market.