2014년 8월 1일 금요일

July 25, 2014

  • Slower Japan inflation in June
    • CPI excluding food ▲ from a year earlier
      • CPI ▲ 3.4% in May
    • It is because sales-tax increase in April. The government expects to see its goal, 2% inflation rate later this year.
    • However, it may not easy since exports are weak, recovery in consumption has been slow and real income isn’t growing.
    • Right now, Japan suffers from deflation and sale-tax looks for ▲consumption while Abe-economic depreciates Yen to increase exports. Yet statistic data shows that it is still tough.
  • China July HSBC flash PMI at 52, an 18-month high
    • It showed most of 11 sub-indices that measure output, domestic and foreign demand improved substantially from June.
  • World’s biggest wealth fund reviews $8 billion Russian stake.
    • It is reassessing its holdings in Russia as the EU considers sanctions against the country.
    • The European Commission presented today a package of measures including the option of banning purchases of shares sold by Russian state owned banks.
      • Russian stock market▼; Russia seems to be a threat to foreign investment.
      • The benchmark ▼6.7% this year; Ruble ▼ by 6.2% this year.
  • S&P warns Kazakh credit risk is ‘extremely high’ on banks
    • Kazakh banks were burned by debt default after a collapse in real-estate prices
    • S&P says that their risk appetites remain aggressive, reflecting opportunistic growth by some small and mid-size Kazakh banks as well as banks’ continued financing volatile real estate and construction projects.
      • S&P predicts Kazakh lenders’ assets will surge about 15% in 2014~2015; outpacing GDP of 4.5%~5%
    • Kazakh’s 38 banks had 32.2% of loans overdue by more than 90 days of July 1, compared with 30% last year and 33.5% in May
  • Argentine debt mediator says time running short for deal
    • Argentina faces its second default in 12 years unless it either pays the holdouts their court-awarded $1.33 billion plus accrued interest on defaulted bonds or agrees to a settlement
    • Argentina can pay for it. Yet it is afraid of its outcome that other creditors might litigate and it might pay about up to $15 billion to creditors.
  • IMF cuts 2014 global forecast after slowdowns in China and U.S.
    • The world economy will advance 3.4% in 2014, less than 3.6% in April and stronger than last year’s 3.2%
      • Next year’s growth will be 4%, compared with 3.9% in April
    • Global growth is expected to rebound from the second quarter, but downside risks remain a concern
      • Increased geopolitical risks could lead to sharply higher oil prices
      • Financial market risks include higher-than-expected U.S. long-term rates and a reversal of recent risk spread and volatility compression
      • Global growth could be weaker for longer, given the lack of robust momentum in advanced economies despite very low interest rate and easing of other breaks to the recovery
    • In the U.S, the inventory overhang at the end of 2013 turned out to be larger than expected; exports declined sharply, demand dampened, and output contracted in a first quarter of 2014.
    • In China, domestic demand moderated more than expected, reflecting the authorities’ effort to rein in credit growth and a correction to real estate activity.
    • In other emerging market economies, weaker-than-projected growth resulted both from weaker external demand and, notably from the U.S and China, and, in a number of cases, softer demand with weaker investment growth.

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