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2014년 8월 13일 수요일

August 13, 2014

China Credit Gauge Plunges as Expansion in Money Supply Slows
  • China’s broadest measure of new credit ▼ to the lowest since the global financial crisis
    • China’s new credit was $385 billion in July (forecasted $780 billion), compared with $1,080 billion in June
    • Softness in the housing market is becoming an increasingly drag on the economy
    • Property investment ▲13.7% in the first seven months from a year ago, down from an annual rise of 14.1% in the first half
    • Newly started property construction ▼12.8% YoY in the seven months
    • Property sales ▼16.3% in July, compared with ▼0.2% in June
  • Industrial output unexpectedly slowed
    • Factory production ▲9% YoY; ▲9.2% in June, fixed-asset investment growth ▼ to 17% YoY (forecasted 17.4%)
  • Retail sales ▲12.2% in July YoY (forecasted 12.5%)
  • Aggregate financing was 273.1 billion yuan ($44.3 billion) in July
    • The aggregate-financing number had three negative components for the month to make the broader figure less than new yuan loans
      • Negative bankers’ acceptance bills (416 billion yuan), foreign-currency loans (16.9 billion yuan), and trust loans (15.8 billion yuan)
Thought:
Today's economic indicators are warning sign. Especially decline in new credit shows that PBOC's monetary policy is not working well; people still don't borrow money to invest even though interest rate is low. Additional stimulus is expected even the PBOC suffered from greater budget deficit

Japan’s Economy Shrinks the Most Since 2011 Quake on Tax
  • As consumption and investment ▼ after an April sales-tax increase aimed at curbing the world’s biggest debt burden
  • GDP ▼6.8% YoY (forecasted -7.1%), compared with ▲6.1% in Q1; ▼1.7% QoQ (forecasted -1.8%) compared with ▲1.5% in Q1
    • Household consumption ▼ at an annualized pace of 19.2% QoQ, while private investment ▼9.7%
    • The higher sales tax hit consumers who’ve seen little growth in incomes and rising costs of living as the BOJ strokes inflation with unprecedented easing
      • CPI ▲3.6% in June YoY – nine times the increase in total cash earnings – with food prices ▲5.1%
  • Imports tumbled 20.5% YoY while exports fell 1.8%
  • The GDP deflator ▲2% YoY, the first increase in 19 quarters
    • The gain reflected the impact of the higher sales levy as well as a rise in material prices and personnel costs
Thought
Depreciated Yen caused increase in net exports. Yet slowdown economic growth and sales-tax have hurt the economic growth. However, stock market already reflected in the market. In fact, Q3 GDP expected to rebound and additional stimulus by BOJ is expected as well.

Korea Unemployment Rate
  • Labor force participation rate ▲63.2% in July; ▲0.8% YoY
  • The number of employed persons ▲2.0% YoY
    • Regular employees ▲3.0%, temporary employees ▲4.7%, daily workers ▼3.3% MoM
  • The unemployment rate marked 3.4% in July, ▲0.3% YoY, compared with ▲3.6% last month
Thought
While MoM both regular and temporary employees increased this month, there is a good sign that YoY temporary employees is declined more than 5% while regular employees still increased. Along with additional stimulus expected Aug. 14, Korean market is promising.
Rise in labor market will promote higher income, which increases household spending. After Sewol crisis, which declined household spending in Q2, domestic consumption is expected to rebound.

Worst Retail Sales Showing in Six Months in Slow Start to Third Quarter
  • Retail sales was unchanged in July QoQ (forecasted 0.2%) after ▲0.2% in June
    • Greater employment opportunities have yet to translate into the incomes needed to invigorate consumers
      • A sign the economy will have trouble sustaining the Q2 pickup in growth
    • Core retail sales, which exclude cars, gas stations, buildings, etc, ▲0.1%, compared with ▲0.5% last month.
  • The U.K. labor-market data showed wages ▼0.2% YoY in Q2 (forecasted -0.1%), the first decline since 2009, compared with ▲0.4% in Q1.
    • Even with increased hiring, wages are lagging behind. That’s why ▼unemployment rate doesn’t reflect on retail sales
      • With inflation ▲ to 1.9% in June, real wages for many Britons are continuing to decline
    • Unemployment is 6.4% compared with 6.3% last month. Jobless claim ▼33,600 (forecasted -30,000). It is the lowest level since 2008
Thought
While inflation rate increases and unemployment drops, U.K. economy looked promising. However, unemployment declined while household income stays almost the same (even declined this month). Core retail sales increased little, which means that housing sales is declining. U.K. just started to expand, but it will slowdown if it can't help the income issue.

Spanish Prices Drop at Fastest Pace Since 2009 Credit Crunch
  • As declining wages curbed the pricing power of retailers, Spanish prices ▼0.4% YoY (forecasted 0.3%). Core inflation was 0% and prices ▼1.5% on the month
    • Greece and Portugal suffer from deflation and inflation close to Italy, so as Spain now
  • Economists forecast euro-area inflation 1.2% next year, compared with ECB’s goal of under 2%
Thought
It is one of the big issues that ECB should consider. Along with Greece, Portugal and Italy, Spanish economy is not going up even stimulus implemented. ECB is expected to put additional stimulus soon.

2014년 8월 8일 금요일

August 8th, 2014

China Reports Record Trade Surplus
  • Unexpected growth of export and decline in import accelerated the growth in July
  • ▲14.5% in exports (forecasted 7.5%), ▼-1.6% in imports YoY (forecasted 3.0%)
    • Export growth was 7.2% and import growth was 5.5% YoY in June
    • The U.S. and European recoveries will help sustain expansion in Chinese economy
    • Exports ▲17% to E.U. YoY; shipments to the U.S. ▲12.3% YoY
    • ▼ in imports may be attributable to falling commodity prices
    • Sales to the biggest markets of the U.S. and Europe ▲
  • The surplus suggests pressure on the yuan to appreciate will probably increase if the central bank doesn’t actively intervene in the foreign-exchange market
  • While an official index showed manufacturing expanded in July at the fastest pace in more than two years, a private gauge of services dropped to the record low, hurt by a real-estate slump
Thought
     Statistical data shows that imports declined in July. Well, the total price of price declined, but not the number of it. For example, China's iron ore imports 11% while the price ▼14.5% for seven months. The average price of soybeans ▼3.9% while the volume ▲20.2%. So, these data showing that the world's second-largest economy still consumes a lot of worldly goods, which may boost global economy.
     For instance, Japanese biggest trading partner is China. Japan needs China to expand its economy to expand its economy. Expansion in China is a good news for Japan, which suffers from decreased household spending and industrial output.


BOJ Holds Stimulus as Weaker Economy Challenges Kuroda
  • After recent production and export data highlighted weakness, the BOJ pushes to stoke faster inflation; maintaining record stimulus
    • The central bank stuck with a pledge to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of $687 billion
    • Outbound shipments unexpectedly ▼ in June, while output slumped the most in more than three years as retail sales ▼
      • Exports ▼1.1% in Q2 QoQ even after yen weakened 17% against the dollar since December 2012
      • Production ▼ 3.3% in June MoM; the most since March 2011
      • Retail sales ▼7% in Q2 QoQ
      • Showing an economy struggling to rebound from a sales-tax increase last quarter
    • The Topix index of shares ▼2.4% today in Tokyo, its biggest in three months
      • U.S. President Barack Obama authorized air strikes in Iraq
  • “Japan’s economy is likely to continue recovering moderately with the effect (of an April sales tax increase) seen gradually subsiding,” said Kuroda. “Exports and output have been weakening, but a positive economic cycle remains in place as job and income conditions steadily improve.”
  • Consumer prices ▲3.6% in June YoY, outpacing a 0.4% gain in labor cash earning
    • Stripped of the effects of the higher sales tax, core inflation was 1.3%, more than halfway to the central bank’s target
Thought
    Kuroda's confidence is come from the trade statistics (first 20 days of July) shows that exports ▲ 4.7% while imports ▼2.8% YoY while export declined 1.9% and imports rose 8.4% last month. Even geopolitical issues hits the Japanese market hard, those issues are not permanent.
     What matters are how well global economy and domestic spending expand. Trade balance in July imply that global economy are getting on the track to economic recovery (with growth in China and U.S.), and household spending is getting better (even though it is still -3.0%). Yes, like what Kuroda said the economic expansion had a setback. But it will get back on track this month.


E.U. Trade Balance
  • German exports in June ▲1.1% YoY; imports ▲2.1% YoY
    • Seasonally adjusted, exports ▲0.9% and imports ▲4.5% MoM in June
      • The highest MoM increase in imports since November 2010
    • In May, exports ▼1.1% MoM, and imports ▼3.4% MoM
      • In YoY, exports ▲ 4.3% and imports ▼0.4% in May
    • A surplus of 16.5 billion euros (17.8 billion euros in May)
  • French manufacturing output ▲1.6% MoM in June, after a fall in May by 2.3%
    • Output also ▲ in industrial production as a whole (1.3% MoM after -1.6% in May)
    • Led by ▲4.6% in transport equipment, ▲1.9% in electronic and machine equipment
      • Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum product ▼2.6%
    • Manufacturing output ▼ by 1.2% QoQ, and Industry output ▼ by 0.5%
      • ▼6.8% of refined petroleum products, ▼5.0% of electrical equipment and ▼7.9% in miming and quarrying, while ▲7.6% in water supply
  • U.K. trade deficit was estimated to have been 2.5 billion pounds in June, compared with 2.4 billion pounds in May 2014
    • 9.4 billion pound deficit on goods, estimated surplus of 7.0 billion pound on services
      • The trade in goods deficit ▲ by 0.3 billion pound compared with May 2014
    • Exports of goods ▼ 0.4 billion pound
      • Reflecting falls in oil and manufactured goods
    • Imports of goods ▼0.1 billion pound
      • Reflecting falls in imports of oil and aircraft; these falls were offset by increases elsewhere in manufactured goods
    • In Q2, exports ▼0.5 billion to 71.3 billion pound. Imports ▲0.4 billion to 98.7 billion pound, reflecting increases in imports of ships, cars and medical and pharmaceutical products
Thought
     ▲Even their main industry is a service industry, industrial industry and manufacturing take up to 20% of the economy. German exports decline was expected as E.U. had a slow economic growth and expansion of geopolitical risks.

     Good news came from France, which ▲1.3% industrial output in June after -1.3% last month. Yes, industrial output has been declined by 0.5% QoQ, but its increment in June is a start of comeback. Production of petroleum product is still expected to decline as the U.S. President Barack Obama approrved to strike Iraq.

     U.K. trade deficit widened by 1.3 billion pound YoY. While balance in services stayed the same, deficit balance in goods, especially to non-EU had a big growth. It is from increases in manufactured goods, which imply that consumer spending has been increased. Despite the deficit widened, ▲imports of manufactured goods implies that consumer are looking for more goods, which would boost U.K. economy while service industry keeps expanding.



DJIA and S&P 500 showed a significant rise on August 8th, 2014. Russia seeks a de-escalation of the conflicts in Ukraine. Even more, S&P had dropped 3.9% from July 24 to yesterday as the conflict of Ukraine and war between Israel and Hamas get worse. Today's rise is more like rebounding from the loss as the expectation of de-escalation came out.

FTSE declined as trade deficit widened, and NIKKEI also declined by almost 3% as U.S. approved airstrike on Iraq, which will boost oil price. Increase in commodity price will be a risk for Japanese economy as it seeks for expanding trade balance.


Sources:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-08/china-reports-record-trade-surplus.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-08/boj-holds-stimulus-as-weaker-economy-challenges-kuroda.html

2014년 8월 1일 금요일

July 31, 2014

Economy in U.S. grows more than forecast
  • The economic expansion in the 2Q picked up where it left off last year, led by ▲ in consumer spending and business investment
  • GDP ▲at a 4% in 2Q, exceeding the median forecast, after ▼2.1% in the 1Q.
    • The increase matched the average growth rate from July through December of 2013; the strongest six months in a decade
  • Policy makers also said slack in the labor market persists even as the economy is picking up, and repeated they will keep interest rates low for a “considerable time” after ending asset purchases
  • Surge in inventories ▲1.7% MoM. Stockpiles were rebuilt at a $93.4 billion annualized pace after a $35.2 billion gain in the first three months of the year
    • That could mean companies will keep tighter control on the number of goods on hand this quarter, which could cut into economic growth
  • Consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of the economy, ▲2.5%
    • Purchases of durable goods jumped at a 14% annualized rate, the fastest since the 3Q of 2009, when the recovery began
  • Companies added 218,000 workers to payrolls in July exceeding the average for the year and showing improving demand is bolstering the job market
    • The gain this month followed a 281,000 increase in June that was the strongest since November 2012
    • Businesses are limiting dismissals and taking on more workers, spurring consumer confidence and laying the groundwork for a pickup in household spending
EU inflation slowed to 0.4% in July, lowest since 2009
  • Euro-area inflation (ECCPEST) unexpectedly slowed in July to the weakest in almost five years, underscoring the European Central Bank’s concerns that the economy is too feeble to drive price growth
  • For the past 10 months the inflation rate has been weaker than 1%, less than half the ECB’s goal, while joblessness has remained stubbornly near an all-time high for months
    • It looks like inflation will stay under 1% this year
      • It is because output gap and the spare capacity in the labor market are so big that they can’t exert much upwards pressure on prices
  • For July, the core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, clocked in at 0.8%, unchanged from the previous month
    • The cost of services ▲ 1.3%
  • Stimulus Effect
    • The ECB’s announcement to have a negative deposit rate and a program to improve bank lending is its most significant policy to save the euro.
    • The ECB warned the economy could take some time to respond to the barrage of stimulus and even left open the door for further action
      • While the ECB’s measure have helped push the average yield on bonds from Europe’s most-indebted nations to a record low, they have not yet boosted prices, growth and lending
  • The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in June to 11.5% from 11.6% in May
    • Joblessness continued to vary widely across the euro area in June, from a low of 5% in Austria to 24.5% in Spain
Japan’s Average Crash Earnings ▲0.4%
  • It was ▲0.6% in May; MoM
Argentina Declared in Default by S&P as Talks Fail
  • S&P declared Argentina in default after government missed a deadline for paying interest on $13 billion of restructured bonds
    • Talks ended today without an agreement because the banks were unable to come up with a solution for a wider group of holdouts
      • All holdout claims would total $15 billion to $20 billion.


Sources:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-30/argentina-defaults-according-to-s-p-as-debt-meetings-continue.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-31/euro-area-inflation-slowed-to-0-4-in-july-lowest-since-2009.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-30/economy-in-u-s-grows-more-than-forecast-after-smaller-drop.html




July 30, 2014

Japan’s output drops most since 2011 as consumers spend less
  • Japanese Industrial Output (-3.3% MoM) in June
    • ▲0.7% in May
  • The widening impact to the economy of April’s sales-tax increase
  • The manufacturing sector has cut back in response to  a slump in consumer spending and a failure of exports to pick up even after an 19% drop in the yen last year
    • Japan’s economy doesn’t have a driving force, with consumer spending and exports having stalled
    • Transport equipment ▼3.4% MoM
    • Outputs of desktops, mobile phones and other communication equipment ▼9%
    • Shipments tumbled for a fifth straight month, helping to ▲inventories which rose the highest since November 2012
  • In contrast to Japan, South Kora’s industrial production surged 2.9% MoM in June, the most since 2009 September
  • Question now is whether Abe will increase the levy to 10% from 8%
Skipped meals show pain as Philippine rate rise nears
  • Inflation rate in the Southeast Asia nation more than doubled in less than a year, ▲to 4.4%
  • Philippine government expects to have an immediate action
    • The monetary authority has increased the reserve requirement ratio twice this year and the special deposit account rate once
  • Higher interest rate may hurt demand in an economy. Q1 GDP ▲5.7%, which is below 6% for the first time in nine quarters.
    • The government approved a plan to import an additional 500,000 metric tons of rice, and some prices of some items such garlic and oil have eased in recent weeks
  • High food price is a potential economy growth risk. Food prices surged 7.4% in June YoY, the fastest pace in 2009, boosted by rice
    • Malaysia ▲interest rate for the first time in more than 3 years
    • India in June pledged to offload 5 million tons of rice at subsidized rate to stabilize rice at subsidized rate to stabilize prices
Consumer Confidence in U.S. jumps to highest since 2007
  • Consumer confidence level ▲ to 90.9 Mom; 86.4 in May
    • Increased employment opportunities led to brighter views of the U.S. economy
    • Gas prices are low and equip markets remain robust as well
  • Home prices rose in the 12 months ended in May at the slowest pace in more than a year as a lull in residential real estate limited appreciation
    • Higher mortgage rates and strict lending standard are restraining demand, which will probably prompt sellers to lower expectations of how much they can get for their properties
  • The unemployment rate dropped to an almost six-year low of 6.1%
    • The difference between those who say jobs were hard to get and those who said employment opportunities were plentiful was the smallest since May 2008

July 29, 2014

New Sanctions Readied by U.S., EU as Russia Prepares
  • The U.S and European Union may impose tougher sanctions against Russia
    • As Vladmir Putin’s government sought replacements for defense imports and considered restrictions on some agriculture products from America and its allies.
  • The new sanctions are aimed at “key sectors” of Russia’s economy
    • Finance, defense and energy
  • However, Russian government says that sanctions won’t achieve their goal and Russia will become self-sufficient
    • Russia also signaled possible retaliation that it may ban imports of chicken from the U.S and fruit from Europe because of concern about contamination.
    • Russia was the second-largest market after Mexico, for U.S chicken last year. It counts about 7% of U.S poultry exports
  • The U.S is likely to deny Russian access to oil-production equipment that could be used in the Arctic and deep waters, and add more banks and energy companies to the list of those banned from U.S financing
Japan’s Retail Sales Drop in Challenge to Abe Reflation
  • Japan’s retail sales feel more than forecast in June, capping a weak quarter that challenges Abe’s bid to reflate the economy while heaping a heavier tax burden on consumers
    • Sales ▼0.6% YoY; forecast was ▼0.5%
    • In the second quarter, sales ▼7% QoQ
  • Abe is counting on consumers to bear a higher sales
    • The Bank of Japan drives the cost of living upward with record monetary easing
    • The risk is that spending fails to regain vigor, sapping strength from an economy lacking support from exports
  • The effort to recover domestic demand is running up against a failure of companies to pass along record cash holdings in the form of higher wages that could help households cope with rising prices and the heavier tax burden
    • The minimum wage stays the same since May from a year earlier
  • Unemployment ▲ to 3.7% (3.5% previous month)
    • However, labor force ▲by 120,000 people
    • It indicates that the current level of vacancies still points to further declines in the jobless rate in coming months
  • Pending Home Sales Index ▼1.1% (102.7 in June, 103.8 in May)
    • It ▼7.3% YoY (110.8 in 2013 June)
      • However, the index is still above 100 for the second consecutive months
    • The market is stabilizing, but ongoing challenges are impending full sales potential
      • Activity is notably higher than earlier this year as prices have moderated and inventory levels have improved
      • However, supply shortages still exist in parts of the country, wages are flat, and tight credit conditions are deterring a higher number of potential buyers from fully taking advantage of lower interest rates
S. Korea June trade data offers mixed picture on economy
  • The current account registered surplus of $7.92 billion for June 2014(▼ by 12.8%)
    • The goods account surplus narrowed to $6.65 billion from $9.13 previous month
    • The service deficit ▲ to $0.58 billion from $0.34 billion
  • Exports ▼ to $50.28 billion from $52.38 billion (▼4.0%)
  • Imports ▲ to $43.63 billion from $43.25 billion(▲0.9%)
  • The services account deficit ▲$0.58 billion from $0.34 billion
    • The other business services account deficit worsen
  • The financial account recorded net outflow of  $9.84 billion
    • Up from $8.13 billion the previous month
  • Direct investment recorded outflow of $2.06 billion (▼$2.06 billion)
    • ▼ from $3.34 billion, as foreign direct investment shifted to a net inflow
  • Portfolio investment recorded a net outflow of $4.22 billion (▲$4.22 billion)
    • ▲ from $3.31 billion, as inflows of foreign investors’ equity securities ▼
  • Other investment recorded a net inflow of $0.28 billion
    • ▼ sharply from $3.95 billion due mostly to increased lending by domestic financial institutions
  • Reserve assets ▲ by $4.54 billion

July 25, 2014

  • Slower Japan inflation in June
    • CPI excluding food ▲ from a year earlier
      • CPI ▲ 3.4% in May
    • It is because sales-tax increase in April. The government expects to see its goal, 2% inflation rate later this year.
    • However, it may not easy since exports are weak, recovery in consumption has been slow and real income isn’t growing.
    • Right now, Japan suffers from deflation and sale-tax looks for ▲consumption while Abe-economic depreciates Yen to increase exports. Yet statistic data shows that it is still tough.
  • China July HSBC flash PMI at 52, an 18-month high
    • It showed most of 11 sub-indices that measure output, domestic and foreign demand improved substantially from June.
  • World’s biggest wealth fund reviews $8 billion Russian stake.
    • It is reassessing its holdings in Russia as the EU considers sanctions against the country.
    • The European Commission presented today a package of measures including the option of banning purchases of shares sold by Russian state owned banks.
      • Russian stock market▼; Russia seems to be a threat to foreign investment.
      • The benchmark ▼6.7% this year; Ruble ▼ by 6.2% this year.
  • S&P warns Kazakh credit risk is ‘extremely high’ on banks
    • Kazakh banks were burned by debt default after a collapse in real-estate prices
    • S&P says that their risk appetites remain aggressive, reflecting opportunistic growth by some small and mid-size Kazakh banks as well as banks’ continued financing volatile real estate and construction projects.
      • S&P predicts Kazakh lenders’ assets will surge about 15% in 2014~2015; outpacing GDP of 4.5%~5%
    • Kazakh’s 38 banks had 32.2% of loans overdue by more than 90 days of July 1, compared with 30% last year and 33.5% in May
  • Argentine debt mediator says time running short for deal
    • Argentina faces its second default in 12 years unless it either pays the holdouts their court-awarded $1.33 billion plus accrued interest on defaulted bonds or agrees to a settlement
    • Argentina can pay for it. Yet it is afraid of its outcome that other creditors might litigate and it might pay about up to $15 billion to creditors.
  • IMF cuts 2014 global forecast after slowdowns in China and U.S.
    • The world economy will advance 3.4% in 2014, less than 3.6% in April and stronger than last year’s 3.2%
      • Next year’s growth will be 4%, compared with 3.9% in April
    • Global growth is expected to rebound from the second quarter, but downside risks remain a concern
      • Increased geopolitical risks could lead to sharply higher oil prices
      • Financial market risks include higher-than-expected U.S. long-term rates and a reversal of recent risk spread and volatility compression
      • Global growth could be weaker for longer, given the lack of robust momentum in advanced economies despite very low interest rate and easing of other breaks to the recovery
    • In the U.S, the inventory overhang at the end of 2013 turned out to be larger than expected; exports declined sharply, demand dampened, and output contracted in a first quarter of 2014.
    • In China, domestic demand moderated more than expected, reflecting the authorities’ effort to rein in credit growth and a correction to real estate activity.
    • In other emerging market economies, weaker-than-projected growth resulted both from weaker external demand and, notably from the U.S and China, and, in a number of cases, softer demand with weaker investment growth.

July 24, 2014

  • 한국 2/4분기 GDP 발표
    • ▲0.6% QoQ, (consensus was 0.7% QoQ)
    • ▲Exports, ▼Domestic Demand
      • 세월호, 이동통신사 영업정지, 대규모 감원 등의 여파
    • ▲Capital investment, ▲construction investment, ▲exports
  • 소비심리가 좋음, 지식재산생산물투자(지출부문) ▼4.2% YoY
  • 재정부장관: 기금운용을 통해 11 7천억원 규모의 재정지출 확대, 각종 금융지원 29조원으로 확대
    • 주택지원(6조원), 중소기업.상인지원(2.4조원), 관광산업(1천억), 농수산물(1천억)
  • 산은.기은.수은 등의 정책금융 확대(10조원), 외평기금의 외화대출 지원 확대(5조원), 안전투자 펀드 조성(5조원)
  • July PMI in EU announced: 54. , ▲1.2p MoM; matching three-year high record in April
    • The pickup came after negative deposit rate
      • Targeted loans to bolster lending, growth and inflation rate running
  • Manufacturing index rose to 51.9 from 51.8 in July, while the gauge for services jumped to 54.4 from 52.8.
  • GDP in China 2nd Q: 7.5%; matching the government’s target.
    • PMI was 52.0p; 50.7 in June.
  • Japan trade deficit expands after exports unexpectedly drop from a year earlier
    • Exports ▼2% while imports ▲8.4% YoY
    • Declined 5.1% in electrical machinery exports
    • Exports to U.S. ▼ by 2.2%; automobile shipments ▼ by 6.8%, 3.8% to Asia while ▲ by 1.5% to China and 6.4% to EU
    • Imports of mineral fuels were 8.3%; about 31.4% of inbound shipment
      • Took the largest portion of the imports
    • Exports of auto vehicle ▲by 0.9%, but transport equipment ▼ by 0.9%
  • Singapore Central Bank says it’s too early to ease property curbs
    • Singapore is the Asia’s second-most expensive housing market
    • The central bank signaled its determination to extend a campaign that begun in 2009 and include tighter mortgage rules and extra taxes.
      • Residential values in the island-state dropped for a third quarter in the three months through June, the longest losing streak in five years.
    • Home prices will probably extend decline as the government sticks with curbs.