August 13, 2014

China Credit Gauge Plunges as Expansion in Money Supply Slows

• China’s broadest measure of new credit ▼ to the lowest since the global financial crisis
• China’s new credit was $385 billion in July (forecasted $780 billion), compared with $1,080 billion in June
• Softness in the housing market is becoming an increasingly drag on the economy
• Property investment ▲13.7% in the first seven months from a year ago, down from an annual rise of 14.1% in the first half
• Newly started property construction ▼12.8% YoY in the seven months
• Property sales ▼16.3% in July, compared with ▼0.2% in June
• Industrial output unexpectedly slowed
• Factory production ▲9% YoY; ▲9.2% in June, fixed-asset investment growth ▼ to 17% YoY (forecasted 17.4%)
• Retail sales ▲12.2% in July YoY (forecasted 12.5%)
• Aggregate financing was 273.1 billion yuan ($44.3 billion) in July
• The aggregate-financing number had three negative components for the month to make the broader figure less than new yuan loans
• Negative bankers’ acceptance bills (416 billion yuan), foreign-currency loans (16.9 billion yuan), and trust loans (15.8 billion yuan)

Thought:

Today's economic indicators are warning sign. Especially decline in new credit shows that PBOC's monetary policy is not working well; people still don't borrow money to invest even though interest rate is low. Additional stimulus is expected even the PBOC suffered from greater budget deficit

Japan’s Economy Shrinks the Most Since 2011 Quake on Tax

• As consumption and investment ▼ after an April sales-tax increase aimed at curbing the world’s biggest debt burden
• GDP ▼6.8% YoY (forecasted -7.1%), compared with ▲6.1% in Q1; ▼1.7% QoQ (forecasted -1.8%) compared with ▲1.5% in Q1
• Household consumption ▼ at an annualized pace of 19.2% QoQ, while private investment ▼9.7%
• The higher sales tax hit consumers who’ve seen little growth in incomes and rising costs of living as the BOJ strokes inflation with unprecedented easing
• CPI ▲3.6% in June YoY – nine times the increase in total cash earnings – with food prices ▲5.1%
• Imports tumbled 20.5% YoY while exports fell 1.8%
• The GDP deflator ▲2% YoY, the first increase in 19 quarters
• The gain reflected the impact of the higher sales levy as well as a rise in material prices and personnel costs

Thought

Depreciated Yen caused increase in net exports. Yet slowdown economic growth and sales-tax have hurt the economic growth. However, stock market already reflected in the market. In fact, Q3 GDP expected to rebound and additional stimulus by BOJ is expected as well.

Korea Unemployment Rate

• Labor force participation rate ▲63.2% in July; ▲0.8% YoY
• The number of employed persons ▲2.0% YoY
• Regular employees ▲3.0%, temporary employees ▲4.7%, daily workers ▼3.3% MoM
• The unemployment rate marked 3.4% in July, ▲0.3% YoY, compared with ▲3.6% last month

Thought

While MoM both regular and temporary employees increased this month, there is a good sign that YoY temporary employees is declined more than 5% while regular employees still increased. Along with additional stimulus expected Aug. 14, Korean market is promising.

Rise in labor market will promote higher income, which increases household spending. After Sewol crisis, which declined household spending in Q2, domestic consumption is expected to rebound.

Worst Retail Sales Showing in Six Months in Slow Start to Third Quarter

• Retail sales was unchanged in July QoQ (forecasted 0.2%) after ▲0.2% in June
• Greater employment opportunities have yet to translate into the incomes needed to invigorate consumers
• A sign the economy will have trouble sustaining the Q2 pickup in growth
• Core retail sales, which exclude cars, gas stations, buildings, etc, ▲0.1%, compared with ▲0.5% last month.
• The U.K. labor-market data showed wages ▼0.2% YoY in Q2 (forecasted -0.1%), the first decline since 2009, compared with ▲0.4% in Q1.
• Even with increased hiring, wages are lagging behind. That’s why ▼unemployment rate doesn’t reflect on retail sales
• With inflation ▲ to 1.9% in June, real wages for many Britons are continuing to decline
• Unemployment is 6.4% compared with 6.3% last month. Jobless claim ▼33,600 (forecasted -30,000). It is the lowest level since 2008

Thought

While inflation rate increases and unemployment drops, U.K. economy looked promising. However, unemployment declined while household income stays almost the same (even declined this month). Core retail sales increased little, which means that housing sales is declining. U.K. just started to expand, but it will slowdown if it can't help the income issue.

Spanish Prices Drop at Fastest Pace Since 2009 Credit Crunch

• As declining wages curbed the pricing power of retailers, Spanish prices ▼0.4% YoY (forecasted 0.3%). Core inflation was 0% and prices ▼1.5% on the month
• Greece and Portugal suffer from deflation and inflation close to Italy, so as Spain now
• Economists forecast euro-area inflation 1.2% next year, compared with ECB’s goal of under 2%

Thought

It is one of the big issues that ECB should consider. Along with Greece, Portugal and Italy, Spanish economy is not going up even stimulus implemented. ECB is expected to put additional stimulus soon.

August 12, 2014

German Investors Confidence Slumps on Ukraine Crisis

• German investor confidence ▼ to the lowest level since 2012; The ZEW index of investor and analyst expectations ▼ to 8.6 (forecasted 18.2) in August from 27.1 in July
• The eight consecutive monthly decline and the biggest in more than two years
• Crisis in Ukraine rose and a sluggish euro-area recovery
• A gauge of current condition ▼ to 44.3 in August (forecasted 44.3) from 61.8 in July. A measure of expectations for the E.U. ▼ to 23.7 (forecasted 43.1) from 48.1

U.K. Food Sales Plunge Amid Supermarket Price War

• U.K. food sales by value ▼ the most in at least 5 ½ years in the three months through July
• Because of price cuts by supermarkets, the British Retail Consortium said
• Continued aggressive discounting by Britain’s supermarket chains may help support consumer spending at a time of record-low wage growth
• But bad for retailers?
• While food sales ▼ in the three months through July, total sales ▲ 1.3%, driven by home and furniture spending. The increase was below the twelve-month average of 2.3%
• In July, total sales ▲ 1.3% YoY

India CPI Tops Estimate in Test for Rajan (central bank governor) as Industry Moderates

• The CPI ▲ 7.96% in July YoY (forecasted 7.4%); compared with ▲7.46% in June
• Industrial production ▲3.% in June YoY (forecasted 5.4%); compared with ▲5% in May
• Finance Minister Arun Jaitley backed Rajan’s Aug. 5 decision to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 8% for a third meeting
• The highest borrowing costs threatens to narrow the budget deficit to a seven-year-low
• A Reserve Bank of India panel proposed adopting a 4% CPI target by 2014 +_ 2% points as part of an overhaul that would also establish an independent monetary policy committee
• Monsoon rains are the main threat to inflation. It was 17% below average, putting India on course for its driest year since 2009
• A crop failure can spur consumer prices, where food accounts for about 50% of the CPI basket

  

Asian market continued to rebound but it shows a restricted movement without specific economic indicator. The investors still wait for Wednesday and Thursday's releases to forecast economic growth.

ZEW index had not affected the market on Aug. 12; economic slowdown in E.U. will affect Asian market.

In fact, ZEW index widely impact on Europe and U.S. stock market

German index ▼1.21% as ZEW index indicates growth will be slowed as Ukraine tension rises. In fact, today's market was shaken when Russian trucks deliver aids to Ukraine, non-military action. It shows how investors are scared of tensions in Ukraine as you see in the graph below.

U.S. market was affected by European market

But trading volume was significantly low, which means that investors still look at how things go. The market is most likely to move as economic indicators such as European (and U.S.) GDP, inflation and unemployment are released.

Decline in energy sector is significant. Slow growth will decrease the demand of energy and it affects the sector these days.

USD appreciated against EURO as German ZEW index shows weakness and Ukraine tensions rises. However, the decline eased as the market continued. It forecasts that the decline is a temporary.

USD/JYP still goes up and down several days within a restricted range. Yet significant movement is expected if the BOJ added monetary policy to boost growth as Q2 GDP is largely contracted.

Sources:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-12/german-investor-confidence-slumps-as-ukraine-crisis-worsens-1-.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-11/u-k-food-sales-plunge-amid-supermarket-price-war.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-12/india-cpi-tops-estimate-in-test-for-rajan-as-industry-moderates.html

August 8th, 2014

China Reports Record Trade Surplus

• Unexpected growth of export and decline in import accelerated the growth in July
• ▲14.5% in exports (forecasted 7.5%), ▼-1.6% in imports YoY (forecasted 3.0%)
• Export growth was 7.2% and import growth was 5.5% YoY in June
• The U.S. and European recoveries will help sustain expansion in Chinese economy
• Exports ▲17% to E.U. YoY; shipments to the U.S. ▲12.3% YoY
• ▼ in imports may be attributable to falling commodity prices
• Sales to the biggest markets of the U.S. and Europe ▲
• The surplus suggests pressure on the yuan to appreciate will probably increase if the central bank doesn’t actively intervene in the foreign-exchange market
• While an official index showed manufacturing expanded in July at the fastest pace in more than two years, a private gauge of services dropped to the record low, hurt by a real-estate slump

Thought
     Statistical data shows that imports declined in July. Well, the total price of price declined, but not the number of it. For example, China's iron ore imports ▲11% while the price ▼14.5% for seven months. The average price of soybeans ▼3.9% while the volume ▲20.2%. So, these data showing that the world's second-largest economy still consumes a lot of worldly goods, which may boost global economy.

     For instance, Japanese biggest trading partner is China. Japan needs China to expand its economy to expand its economy. Expansion in China is a good news for Japan, which suffers from decreased household spending and industrial output.

BOJ Holds Stimulus as Weaker Economy Challenges Kuroda

• After recent production and export data highlighted weakness, the BOJ pushes to stoke faster inflation; maintaining record stimulus
• The central bank stuck with a pledge to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of $687 billion
• Outbound shipments unexpectedly ▼ in June, while output slumped the most in more than three years as retail sales ▼
• Exports ▼1.1% in Q2 QoQ even after yen weakened 17% against the dollar since December 2012
• Production ▼ 3.3% in June MoM; the most since March 2011
• Retail sales ▼7% in Q2 QoQ
• Showing an economy struggling to rebound from a sales-tax increase last quarter
• The Topix index of shares ▼2.4% today in Tokyo, its biggest in three months
• U.S. President Barack Obama authorized air strikes in Iraq
• “Japan’s economy is likely to continue recovering moderately with the effect (of an April sales tax increase) seen gradually subsiding,” said Kuroda. “Exports and output have been weakening, but a positive economic cycle remains in place as job and income conditions steadily improve.”
• Consumer prices ▲3.6% in June YoY, outpacing a 0.4% gain in labor cash earning
• Stripped of the effects of the higher sales tax, core inflation was 1.3%, more than halfway to the central bank’s target

Thought
    Kuroda's confidence is come from the trade statistics (first 20 days of July) shows that exports ▲ 4.7% while imports ▼2.8% YoY while export declined 1.9% and imports rose 8.4% last month. Even geopolitical issues hits the Japanese market hard, those issues are not permanent.
     What matters are how well global economy and domestic spending expand. Trade balance in July imply that global economy are getting on the track to economic recovery (with growth in China and U.S.), and household spending is getting better (even though it is still -3.0%). Yes, like what Kuroda said the economic expansion had a setback. But it will get back on track this month.

E.U. Trade Balance

• German exports in June ▲1.1% YoY; imports ▲2.1% YoY
• Seasonally adjusted, exports ▲0.9% and imports ▲4.5% MoM in June
• The highest MoM increase in imports since November 2010
• In May, exports ▼1.1% MoM, and imports ▼3.4% MoM
• In YoY, exports ▲ 4.3% and imports ▼0.4% in May
• A surplus of 16.5 billion euros (17.8 billion euros in May)
• French manufacturing output ▲1.6% MoM in June, after a fall in May by 2.3%
• Output also ▲ in industrial production as a whole (1.3% MoM after -1.6% in May)
• Led by ▲4.6% in transport equipment, ▲1.9% in electronic and machine equipment
• Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum product ▼2.6%
• Manufacturing output ▼ by 1.2% QoQ, and Industry output ▼ by 0.5%
• ▼6.8% of refined petroleum products, ▼5.0% of electrical equipment and ▼7.9% in miming and quarrying, while ▲7.6% in water supply
• U.K. trade deficit was estimated to have been 2.5 billion pounds in June, compared with 2.4 billion pounds in May 2014
• 9.4 billion pound deficit on goods, estimated surplus of 7.0 billion pound on services
• The trade in goods deficit ▲ by 0.3 billion pound compared with May 2014
• Exports of goods ▼ 0.4 billion pound
• Reflecting falls in oil and manufactured goods
• Imports of goods ▼0.1 billion pound
• Reflecting falls in imports of oil and aircraft; these falls were offset by increases elsewhere in manufactured goods
• In Q2, exports ▼0.5 billion to 71.3 billion pound. Imports ▲0.4 billion to 98.7 billion pound, reflecting increases in imports of ships, cars and medical and pharmaceutical products
  

Thought
     ▲Even their main industry is a service industry, industrial industry and manufacturing take up to 20% of the economy. German exports decline was expected as E.U. had a slow economic growth and expansion of geopolitical risks.

     Good news came from France, which ▲1.3% industrial output in June after -1.3% last month. Yes, industrial output has been declined by 0.5% QoQ, but its increment in June is a start of comeback. Production of petroleum product is still expected to decline as the U.S. President Barack Obama approrved to strike Iraq.

     U.K. trade deficit widened by 1.3 billion pound YoY. While balance in services stayed the same, deficit balance in goods, especially to non-EU had a big growth. It is from increases in manufactured goods, which imply that consumer spending has been increased. Despite the deficit widened, ▲imports of manufactured goods implies that consumer are looking for more goods, which would boost U.K. economy while service industry keeps expanding.

DJIA and S&P 500 showed a significant rise on August 8th, 2014. Russia seeks a de-escalation of the conflicts in Ukraine. Even more, S&P had dropped 3.9% from July 24 to yesterday as the conflict of Ukraine and war between Israel and Hamas get worse. Today's rise is more like rebounding from the loss as the expectation of de-escalation came out.

FTSE declined as trade deficit widened, and NIKKEI also declined by almost 3% as U.S. approved airstrike on Iraq, which will boost oil price. Increase in commodity price will be a risk for Japanese economy as it seeks for expanding trade balance.

Sources:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-08/china-reports-record-trade-surplus.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-08/boj-holds-stimulus-as-weaker-economy-challenges-kuroda.html

August 6th, 2014

Italy Recession, German Orders Signal Euro-Area Struggle

• Italy’s economy shrank 0.2% in the Q2 after contracting 0.1% in Q1
• It is a preliminary estimate. Will be updated on Aug. 14 along with Germany, France and Spain
• 74.0% Service industries, 23.9% manufacturing, 2.1% Agriculture
• “Today’s data are a serious reason for concern and confirm that the euro-area recovery is still sluggish at best”
• However, its industrial production ▲0.9% MoM in July; compared with -1.2% in June
• German Factory Orders ▼ 3.2% in June from May
• The E.U. agreed last week on its widest-ranging sanctions on Russia
• Russia counts Germany as its biggest trading partner in Europe
• German Vice Chancellor blocked a deal for Rheinmetall AG to build a military training center east of Moscow in light of the sanctions

Thought
    Even ECB proposes negative interest rate to boost economy and inflation, geopolitical risks and unemployment hold back its effect. For example, even Italy's unemployment rate fell to 12.3% from 12.6% in June, it is still higher than EU unemployment rate (10.4%).

     Germany's factory order has been decreased by geopolitical risks as well. It is not about it's policy or economic environment. Its economy expects to rise once the risks are solved.

U.K. House Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since 2006

• U.K. house prices ▲1.4% MoM in July (▲0.4% forecasted); -0.4% in June
• “Demand continues to be supported by a continuing economic recovery, growth in employment, improving consumer confidence and low mortgage rates”
• The market is cooling after stricter lending rules took effect; the price may decrease soon
• There is “uncertainty over the true state of the housing market”

U.K. Industrial Production Increases Less Than Forecast

• Industrial Production ▲0.3% in June (forecasted ▲0.6%), when it ▼0.6% in May
• ▲1.2% YoY (forecasted ▲1.5%); ▲2.3% in May
• Output in Q2 rose 0.3%, below 0.4% estimated published in last month’s GDP data
• Manufacturers battling a stronger pound and strains in the euro area
• Last week, new orders survey was 51.5
• Showing that factory growth cooled to the slowest pace in a year in July as new orders and output cooled

Thought
     Since few days ago, IMF kept warning that overpriced housing may hurt U.K. economic expansion. U.K. recently got out from recession and fully expanding its economy. Interest rate, which will be decided tomorrow, will be the key for its future growth. BOE would decline the interest rate if it believes housing price is too high, but it is unlikely that the global economy is yet to be fully expanded.

Trade Gap Shrinks to Five-Month Low as U.S. Imports Drop

• The trade deficit in the U.S. unexpectedly narrowed in June
• The biggest drop in imports in a year
• The economy moved closer to energy independence
• The gap ▼7% to $41.5 billion (forecasted $44.8 billion)
• Imports dropped 1.2%
• The drop in purchases of foreign goods include decline in autos and cellular phones, while petroleum imports were the lowest in more than three years
• Yet it seems like to be rebounded by growing household spending and business investment
• Exports ▲0.15 to a record $195.9 billion
• Sales of civilian aircraft, pharmaceuticals and chemicals were among the biggest gainers
• Mixed signals
• Recent data signal a mixed performance for growth outside the U.S.
• In the U.K. index of services expanded in July to the highest level, while a similar measure in the euro area grew less than initially estimated
• China’s growth accelerated for the first time in three quarters after the government speed up spending and freed up more money for loans to counter a property slump

     It was quite a dynamic day. Even the index stayed almost stayed constant, but there were a lot of ups and downs in the market today. Geopolitical risks hit the market, which contributed to decline industrial sectors. Decline in energy import and oil stock raised energy sector.

Despite recession in Italy and decline in factory order in Germany, EUR/USD stayed almost constant, increased by 0.01%

August 5th, 2014

China Services Index Falls to Record Low

• The services Purchasing Managers’ Index ▼ to 50.0 from June’s 53.1
• Suggesting the government’s stimulus measures are failing to gain traction outside of manufacturing
• Signaled that ▼ home prices and new construction are dragging on services
• They account for almost half of GDP
• Showed the weakest expansion of new business in more than five years
• The services report contrasts with the manufacturing PMI, which ▲ in July to an 18-month high of 51.7
• This survey includes hotels and restaurants, transportation and storage, financial intermediation, renting and business activities and post and telecommunications

Shanghai index ▼ 0.15%















Indonesian Economic Growth Slows Challenge to Widodo

• Indonesia’s economic growth eased to the slowest since 2009 as exports and government spending ▼
• GDP ▲ 5.2% in Q2 YoY; ▲ 2.47% MoM
• Widodo promised 7% economic growth by improving infrastructure and manufacturing
• Export numbers have been coming in below expectations.
• Exports ▼ 1.04% YoY; Mining ▼ 0.15% while government consumption ▼ 0.71%. Household consumption ▲ 5.59% and investment ▲ 4.53%
• Monetary policy
• Subsidies that keep local fuel prices low have spurred energy imports
• Straining the trade balance and tying up funds that could be used to build roads, bridges and railways
• “Bank Indonesia cannot afford to ease monetary policy despite lackluster growth and contained inflation pressures. Focus remains on stability and keeping the current-account deficit in check.”

Euro-Area Services Grew Less Than Initially Estimated in July

• Markit Economics’ Purchasing Managers Index ▲ to 54.2 from 52.8 in June
• A composite index of services and manufacturing increased to 53.8, also lower than previously estimated
• Services indexes ▲ in Germany, France and Spain in July
• In Italy, the gauge ▼ 52.8 from 53.9 in June, which was the highest since 2010
• Markit said the recovery in Italy also “remained solid” last month, with France remaining the euro area’s “laggard,” as a slight rebound in services was offset by a “deepening downturn” at manufacturers

U.K. Services Surge at Fastest Pace in Eight Months

• Its Purchasing Managers’ Index for services, the biggest part of the economy, jumped to 59.1 from 57.7 in June; the highest since November and the 19^th straight month above the 50 level
• “The sustained strength will add to calls for interest rates to start rising later this year”
• A composite index covering services, manufacturing and construction ▲ to 58.8 in July from 57.9 in June

FTSE 100 index ▲ 0.07%















Euro zone June retail sales show strongest YoY rise in seven years

• June retail sales ▲ 0.4% MoM; 2.4% YoY
• The strongest YoY rise since March 2007
• Germany and France see the fastest YoY ▲ since February 2011
• The annual rise was driven by a 3.0% ▲ in sales of non-food products
• Electronics, computers, books or textiles
• Also followed by a 2.0% increase in the volume of sales of food, drinks and tobacco
• Analysts saw modestly improving labor markets in most countries and very low consumer price inflation providing some support to consumer spending over the coming months and help euro zone recovery to gradually gain traction
• Unemployment was the lowest level since September 2012
• Inflation remains in the ‘danger zone’ of below 1% since October last year

Sources: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-05/china-services-index-falls-to-record-low.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-05/u-k-services-surge-at-fastest-pace-in-eight-months.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/eurozone-economy-retail-idUSL6N0QB2YE20140805
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-05/indonesia-s-gdp-growth-slows-in-challenge-to-widodo-expansion.html

S&P 500

July 26, 2014

• U.K. overcomes record slump with 0.8% quarterly growth
• GDP ▲0.8% in the 2^nd Q, highest since 1^st Q, 2008.
• GDP was 3.1%▲ in Q2 compared a year earlier.
• ▲ in service sector (1% increment) contributed 0.77% to the increase GDP.
• The contribution of industry grouping is Service (77.8%), Production (15.2%), Construction (6.3%) and Agriculture (0.7%)
• Construction output ▼0.5% QoQ, after Q1 2014 ▲ 1.5%, 4.2% YoY
• The index for business and service ▲1.3% QoQ, previously Q1 0.9% QoQ.
• Architectural and engineering activities made the largest contribution to the increase; YoY growth is 4.2%
• Indonesia’s new finance chief
• Suharto’s economic team reinstated bank reserve requirements, raised interest rate, stopped automatic central bank credits to state enterprises, ended subsidies for key consumer goods, abolished quantitative restrictions on imports, and devalued the rupiah to stabilize the economy.