20150723 - Exchange Market with Commodity

Source: CNBC.com

          Crude Oil dragged down today by positive U.S. economic outlook. Jobless claim drops to 41-1/2-year low, the lowest level since November 1973. It brought back interest rate issue that it might be increased in September, which is sooner than what majority expected.

Source: CNBC.com

           Both crude oil and Gold stay almost unchanged as most of oversupply issues have been resolved. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs released report that gold price can fall below $1,000 per ounce first time since 2009. Strong USD from U.S. interest rate hike and increase in bond yield shift safe-haven from gold to USD and treasury bonds.

Source: Investing.com

            The Fed has said that it will keep eyes on wage and personal consumption expenditure. Yet recent economic indicators proposed stable economic growth. Existing Home Sales released as 5.49 million, exceeds forecast of 5.40 million. Improvements in both housing market and labor market may boost interest rate hike sooner.

Source: Yahoo Finance

             Both EUR and GBP show volatile movement today. USD is depreciated by 0.55% against EUR. EUR strengths as Greek parliament passed second package of reform. Hours after the package was approved, Greece’s most influential think tank warned a sharp drop back into recession. It eased Greek debt crisis as the Greek government is more likely accept proposals that international lenders offered. The strength was limited as positive U.S. economic indicators released.

Source: Investing.com

             GBP is weakened as U.K. retail sales dropped by 0.2%, far below forecast of 0.3% increment from last month. It eased fear that BOE might increase interest rate in anytime soon. With positive U.S. economic outlook, GBP weakens wider.

Source: Yahoo Finance

             USD weakens by 0.14% against JPY. The International Monetary Fund said today that Japan’s debt is unsustainable and could climb to almost three times the size of economy by 2030 unless the government does more to cut its budget. It also said that the Bank of Japan should stand ready to increase monetary stimulus further and provide stronger guidance to markets to meet the BOJ’s inflation target of 2.0%. Yet the IMF also warns that authorities should continue with bold structural reforms and credible fiscal consolidation to avoid over-reliance on weak yen.

Source: Yahoo Finance

            AUD shows volatile movement. The Reserve Bank of Australia said on the monetary policy meeting on Tuesday that further depreciation seemed likely and necessary. It looks like some market participants try to take arbitrage opportunities.

            NZD weakens as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreased its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.00%. Yet the weakness is limited as positive U.S. economic outlook released in the middle of the market.